UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin Main Event – Preview and Prediction : The Lion's Den University
Class Notes - 11/22/14

11/22/14 - Class Notes

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UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin Main Event – Preview and Prediction

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On the day of the fight, click the photo watch the live stream via atdhe.net

Main Event

Heavyweight Championship bout:

United States Brock Lesnar (4-1-0)

vs.

United States Shane Carwin (12-0-0)

Fighting Style:
Lesnar – Wrestling
Carwin – Wrestling, Boxing, Brazlain Jiu Jitsu

Lesnar Carwin
5 fights 4W 1L 12 fights 12W 0L
By knockout 2 0 By knockout 7 0
By submission 1 1 By submission 5 0
By decision 1 0 By decision 0 0

Who you got winning the Heavyweight Title?

View Results

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Brock Lesnar is finally back in the Octagon after a scary intestinal disorder called diverticulitis, which sidelined him and kept him out of any competition for almost an entire year (last fight was July 11th 2009 vs. Mir). Lesnar, who originally made a name for himself with his stint with WWE, announced in 2006 after a failed attempt to make the Minnesota Vikings defensive line that he would be joining the mixed martial arts world signing with the organization K-1 Grand Prix. In his MMA debut on June 2nd 2007, Lesnar beat Min Soo Kim via ‘submission from strikes’ at 1:09 into round one. Here is Lesnar’s only fight outside the Octagon:

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Whether the UFC scooped him up knowing he was going have the skills to be a champion in the heavyweight division or simply because he would bring record numbers in for pay-per-view events… it didn’t seem to matter to Dana White and the UFC had Brock. Any dedicated MMA fan is familiar with the UFC debut of Lesnar at UFC 81 against former Heavyweight Champ Frank Mir. In the fight, Lesnar secured an early take-down but was deducted a point for hitting Mir on the back of the head. After another take down (second one in a minute), Mir locked in a kneebar on the inexperienced Lesnar tapping him out at 1:30 of the first round. The UFC took full advantage of the upset loss and knew they could promote a future grudge match that would have the MMA world buzzing. The grudge match wouldn’t come until Lesnar had proven himself first with back-to-back wins over Heath Herring (decision) and Randy Couture (with a knockout heard around the world) making him the Heavyweight Champ. After Mir beat Big Nog for the Interim Heavyweight Championship, he immediately located Lesnar in the crowd during the post-fight interview and stated ‘you’ve got my belt’.

The grudge match took place at the much anticipated UFC 100 and Lesnar completely dominated Mir for the duration of the fight winning by TKO at 1:48 of round two (earning him ’2009 Beatdown of the Year’ Honors from Sherdog). In the post-fight celebration, Lesnar flipped the bird to the fans who were booing him, before grabbing the mic and saying “I’m going to drink a Coors Light, cause Bud Light won’t pay me nothing … and I might even get on top of my wife tonight”. This not only pissed off Dana White, but in the post-fight press conference, Lesnar apologized like Dana’s bitch and had a bottle of Bud Light beside him. Not so tough at that point… were ya Brock? The Lesnar-Carwin fight has been a long time coming after Lesnar pulled out of the UFC 106 card due to an undisclosed illness, which later was deemed to be diverticulitis (he also suffered with Mononucleosis when he immune system was beaten down).  The fight was changed to UFC 108, and yet again Lesnar had to pull out of the fight and more was disclosed about his health (in summary, he had fecal matter leaking into his abdomen from a hole in his intestine). Doctors have stated the infection may have been in his body for approximately a year prior to being noticed and treated.

There is no doubt that everyone is wondering how Brock Lesnar is going to fair in the Octagon after being sidelined for so long, and facing one of the most ferocious heavyweights the MMA world has to offer. As big and skilled as Lesnar is, he won’t be able to lie on top of his opponent and control Carwin like he has in past fights. Carwin naturally sits around 260 lbs, Lesnar will cut to 265 and fight around 280. But not only is Carwin a big man himself, but the strength he possesses in that of a gorilla and no one truly knows (except for Lesnar and Dana White), how truly sick Lesnar was. Will he be able to rebound? It won’t matter. Carwin will be too much, as he is Lesnar’s biggest test (and vice-versa) but having been sick or not, Lesnar will be overwhelmed on June 3rd.

Shane Carwin has hands of steel. Period! Not only can he hit harder than Lesnar, but he also has similar credentials when you consider both fighters were NCAA National Wrestling Champions as well as superb athletes on the gridiron. Carwin fought his first eight fights in organizations outside the Octagon, where he would become the ‘Ring of Fire’ Heavyweight Champion in the fight prior to signing with the UFC. Dana White knew he needed to sign Carwin and sign him quick as everyone Carwin faced was getting knocked out fast! After his MMA debut went 2:11 into the first round, Carwin didn’t allow another fight past the two-minute mark until his most recent fight against Frank Mir (3:48 of round one) and every victory has come via knockout (or ‘TKO submissions’). Back in May 2008 (UFC 84), Carwin made his Octagon debut and won just 0:44 seconds into round one with a devastating punch that sent Wellisch’s mouthpiece into the upper deck. At UFC 89, Neil Wain didn’t fair any better when he was TKO’d at 1:31 of the first round.

At this point, the UFC knew they needed to step up the competition that Carwin was facing. Dana White and fight-maker Joe Silva brought in former number-one contender and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist Gabriel Gonzaga figuring it would challenge Carwin. Challenge he did not and Carwin continued to skyrocket up the rankings after a straight right hand put Gonzaga on his back just 69 seconds into the fight. After the UFC fumbled with the idea of a Carwin-Velasquez number one contender fight, they canned it and were set to have Brock Lesnar defend his belt at UFC 106 against the undefeated Carwin. Lesnar got ill and it was pushed back to UFC 108. When it was determined Lesnar would need more time to recover, the UFC paired up Carwin against Mir, in an interim Heavyweight Championship bout. While some fighters would be pissed off if they were going to fight for the title, and when their opponent pulls out, have it snatched away, Carwin didn’t say a word. All he did was quickly take care of Frank Mir (the same Mir who went to round two with Lesnar) when he TKO’d him at 3:43 of round one at UFC 111, winning the interim belt. Afterwards Lesnar came in and said Carwin didn’t have the “real belt” but Carwin admitted it and stated he’ll be taking Brock’s… and he’s right… he will.

I have personally watched all twelve of Carwin’s professional bouts and long ago I knew he would be the Heavyweight Champion. I’ve grown to respect Carwin as a fighter. He is one of the most down to earth people in the sport. You’ll never hear him flipping off fans or yelling into the camera while foaming at the mouth. He respects his opponents, doesn’t talk trash, yet has the fundamentals to be able to if he wanted… but his values overpower his mouth. He thinks smart, not hard… and hasn’t had an illness that almost killed him within the last twelve months. Carwin has been waiting for this moment for a long, long time and after the fight, I’m sure Carwin and his entourage will be spilling plenty of Bud Light…

TheCoach’s Pick: CARWIN via TKO

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Also, Be Sure To Check Out:

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin Main Card – Previews and Predictions

and

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin Spike TV and Undercard – Previews and Predictions

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About the Author: TheCoach knows his stuff. Now you can either utilize the knowledge, or regret that you didn't.

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  1. [...] Click here to see Lesnar’s only fight outside the Octagon (MMA debut): [...]

  2. [...] Click here to see Lesnar’s only fight outside the Octagon (MMA debut): [...]

  3. Will says:

    Yeah cause this article wasn’t biased or anything like that…

    • TheCoach says:

      What part about it was biased? It’s an opinion piece/prediction and I state why I think Carwin will win. Isn’t that what a prediction is?

      I tell it how it is and how I see it.
      You sound similar to Boston fans when I said the Lakers would win in seven, or the Flyers fans who vowed to return once the series were over.

      Now all I hear is crickets.

      Lesnar is a better wrestler and if he takes the fight to the ground, he could win.

      If he stands with Carwin or engages in dirty boxing, Carwin WILL win.

      I am not writing off Lesnar, but Carwin is more skilled and experienced as a mixed martial artist.

  4. UK Fan says:

    I thought it was a very good preview of the fight.

    I remember sitting there before the Mir fight that Carwin won. I was sitting there looking at his record of 1st round finishes and debating whether to put my money on him for a 1st round finish. It was trading at 7-1 over here, basically put £100 on and get back £800 altogether including your £100 stake.

    Anyway I decided against it, and the rest as they say is history. Silly old me.

    I’m looking for Carwins price for a 1st round k.o this time and the bookies dont do round betting anymore, if they did I’d throw the lot on Carwin to do him 1st round, it IS just going to happen!!!

  5. MMAJunkie says:

    Carwin hits HARD, not one doubts that. If brock decides to stand up with him, I think that it could easily prove the end of his reign as champ. The reality is, he wont and Carwin will be forced to try and out wrestle someone who is far, far his superior.

    The way you compare Carwins’w wrestling ability to Brock’s is like comparing The lakers and Yankees ability to play Chess. It simply isnt the same and worse, it clearly shows your lack of knowledge regarding their abilities on the ground.

    Brock is the second best natural athelete to ever hit MMA- behind GSP. Carwin is NO WHERE near that. He is a one trick pony- a pony with a kick, for sure, but when people realize that standing with him isnt the way to beat him, he will fold like a lawn chair.

  6. john says:

    I disagree in thinking Carwin has the upper hand standing up with lesnar. Brock Lesnars hands are the size of cantelopes not even joking. If he swings within a six foot radius of carwin. carwin is going out like a light, and if he doesnt get knocked out, it will be enough to daze him where brock can finish.

  7. Carwin showed he has the heaviest hands in MMA. Unfortunately, Brock’s chin showed that its no slouch either.

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