NFL Picks – Week 4 [Late Games and Monday Nighter]

If you’re thinking playing some Pro-Line this weekend (which you should) you may want to check out Analysis of TheCoach’s Record Against the Spread

New York Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0)
LINE: New Orleans -7.0

TheCoach really wants to take the Jets to cover, but can’t because of a few things that bother me. The 09’ Jets are a remake of the 08’ Ravens, and the Ravens went into Indianapolis and the Peyton killed them 31-3. This game will not be that lopsided, but much like Manning, you can’t blitz Brees and be successful, he will ultimately tear you apart. With much of the Jets secondary facing injuries, either sitting out or playing through them, Brees should be able to take full advantage.

I really do like the Jets, and Rex Ryan is a football genius but I don’t think Mark Sanchez is just quite ready for a shoot-out yet. If he proves me wrong, good for him, but considering he hasn’t lead in a game by more than 6 points yet, we haven’t seen Sanchez have to play from behind. I think we will this week. And while everyone is talking about the Jets defense, remember this is a Saints D’ who shut the Bills out last week (lone TD was on special teams) and also shut T.O. out (0 receptions).

Again the trend of teams going into a BYE favoured by -6.5 or more are 31-6 and Drew Brees is 19-8 against the spread coming off back to back wins. New Orleans may just be up there with New York as the best in the NFC, as long as they stay healthy.

New Orleans 30 New York Jets 17

Buffalo (1-2) @ Miami (0-3)
LINE: -3

The return of Marshawn “Beast” Lynch will absolutely improve the chances for Buffalo to head to Miami and pull off the win. The quarterbacking of Chad Henne for the Dolphins now that Pennington is out for the year is also going to be in favour of the Bills. The key for Buffalo though is to continue to play Fred Jackson with Marshawn Lynch. If Dick Jauron is smart enough to do this, Trent Edwards will have an easy time on Sunday, but Miami has many players who will cause pressure (although Edwards day will be easy, T.O. wont be happy because he wont have time to throw the ball deep).

I expect that Miami will run A LOT of the wildcat now that Pennington is out, and not that they weren’t running the ball a lot before, but they will even more now. This does scare TheCoach a little bit. I’ll be honest, if Pennington was playing I’d be riding the Dolphins hard, but I’m not putting money down on Chad Henne. No Way. Buffalo has to win this game. Before the season started the hype in Bills Land was big with the addition of T.O. and last season before their collapse, they looked amazing. The Jets are 3-0, New England is 2-1, if Buffalo can’t beat the Dolphins with a nobody at QB, their season is over practically before it started.

Buffalo 23 Miami 19

Dallas (2-1) @ Denver (3-0)
Line: Dallas -4.5

Everyone is saying Denver has such a great defense. Can we get a few things straight?  They played the Bengals before they could mesh offensively, the Browns, and finally the Raiders. Nothing about stopping those offensive units is impressive, and at the same time, nothing is impressive about putting up 25-30 points on their defense (the Bengals allowed Denver to score 12 points and 7 was off a fluke td at the end of the game). Denver does not impress me and the fact the line is -4.5 is crazy. I was expecting another -9.5 line.

A week of a lot of high spreads, is normally a very hard week to bet on.

With that being said, I wont go into to much detail here. The Broncos will have success on the ground while Dallas will have success everywhere. Romo should be able to get back to his normal playing ways early in the season because it’s around American Thanksgiving when Romo really starts fucking the dog. Here’s proof he won’t struggle, before Dec. 1^st Tony Romo as a starter is 20-9. He is also 11-6 on the road against the spread.

Dallas 27 Denver 16

St. Louis (0-3) @ San Francisco (2-1)
LINE: San Francisco -10.5

The way that the 49er’s lost last week in the final seconds from a Brett Favre pass I think really put a bump in their season. They will rebound easily, win this game and win their division. But losing that way hurts a team and its hard to get up for the next game (especially as 11 point favourites). I like San Fran in the underdog roll when they can use their conservative offense and stellar defense to keep them in the game. However as a double-digit favourite, after losing like that, I cant see the 49er’s giving it 100% here.

The Rams wont win but what they need to do to stay in the game is get Stephen Jackson 25+ touches between hand-offs and backfield passes. I don’t think the Rams are as bad as some of the teams out there that are 0-3 (Kansas City, Cleveland). Frank Gore won’t be playing but Glen Coffee seems to be a solid RB and if Gore is out for a while, he will be able to help the offense not lose a step. But as I said, it’s risky to take them, but I’m taking the Rams to cover knowing San Fran wont be 100% in the game mentally.

San Francisco 20 St Louis 13

San Diego (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2)
LINE: Pittsburgh -6.5

Since Troy Polomulu has been injured, the Steelers have had trouble stopping the deep pass. Phillip Rivers should be able to find his receivers downfield and will need to do so.  With Tomlinson out, Pittsburgh can focus more on the pass and less on the rush. Darren Sproles doesn’t scare the Steel Curtain. If San Diego wants to win this game, Phillip Rivers needs to win the game for them, he might be able to do it.  I wouldn’t put money on the Chargers winning outright, but I would on the Chargers covering the spread.

Pittsburgh is going to try to get the running game going early but they may not be able to because Willie Parker has a sore shoulder and turf toe; so even if he plays, he won’t be effective. The Steelers should still be able to run the ball since the Dolphins, Chargers and Raiders all have without much difficulty, but Pittsburgh’s weak offensive line might be their downfall. I don’t see Pittsburgh starting the season 1-3 but I also don’t seem them covering. They did sweep San Diego last year, and in doing so knocked them out of the playoffs, so expect the Chargers to come out just as fired up as the Steelers who are in a must win game. Should be a great one!

Pittsburgh 27  San Deigo 24

Green Bay (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0) MNF
LINE: Minnesota -3.5

This is probably going to be up there as the most viewed game in the history of the NFL as Brett Favre is playing against the Green Bay Packers. Did anyone think 2 years ago you would ever hear those words uttered? No one did, until Favre un-retired and came back with the Jets. And Green Bay was smart and gave rights to him to the Jets so they wouldn’t have to face him. There is nothing more that Favre wants than to beat the Packers; this is why he is still playing in the NFL. It’s no coincidence that he joined a team in the same division as Green Bay allowing him to see them twice a year.

The Packers offensive line woes are serious. The Rams got pressure on them last week and as I said, if you need to fix anything, play the Rams and it’ll help fix the problem. Green Bay is a good team, don’t get me wrong, but they need to learn how to protect Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings right now are on fire while Green Bay is having trouble establishing any consistency because of their poor O-line.  TheCoach expects Favre and the Vikings to pull off the win in primetime making for an even more hostile environment when Favre travels to Lambeau.

Minnesota 27 Packers 20

Make sure to check out my picks for Week 4 Early Games