NFL Picks – Week 4 [Early Games]

TheCoach | Sep 29, 2009 | Comments 0

If you plan to play some Pro-Line this weekend (which you should), then you may want to check out Analysis of TheCoach’s Record Against the Spread

Detroit (1-2) @ Chicago (2-1)

LINE: Chicago -9.5

Detroit won their first game in 20 attempts last Sunday beating Washington 19-14, therefore the -10.5 spread can be very convincing but TheCoach recommends you stay clear of Detroit this week. It’s no surprise that Washington has bailed out Detroit yet again. We need to get a few things straight though. The Chicago Bears are not the Washington Redskins and the caliber of football they play consistently is levels above what Washington does and their defenses are on opposite sides of the spectrum. With RB Kevin Smith questionable for Detroit, the Bears will focus on punishing Matthew Stafford and I expect they will.

The Lions D’ is allowing 30 PPG thus far (88 points against in 3 games), and there is no reason why Jay Cutler and Matt Forte can’t tear them apart. TheCoach expects Matt Forte to have a break out game, so if you play fantasy football and have him, start him 100%. Detroit’s win last week is only going to make the Bears be more focused then they already were going into their bye week. Teams favoured by -6.5 or more going into a BYE are 30-6! Hot Damn!

Chicago 27 Detroit 10

Cincinnati (2-1) @ Cleveland (1-2)

LINE: Cincinnati -6.5

Derek Anderson will be getting the nod this week for the Browns, which means a few things. One, they will be able to stretch out the defense since Brady Quinn is to scared to throw deep. Two, Anderson will play like he just stumbled out of a Western Homecoming Kegger and will throw just as many INT’s as Quinn (if not more). TheCoach really likes the Bengals defense, they’ve held opposing running backs to 3.7 yards per carry. Jamal Lewis and James Davis will not have a good day.

To sum it up, the Browns will yet again have a terrible day, their defense have allowed 5.7 yards per carry so Cedric Benson will run the ball effectively allowing Palmer to find Ocho Cinco and his other WR’s with ease. The Browns have allowed 34, 27, and 34 points and the Bengals will have no problem putting up 30 points. If it weren’t for that ridiculous tipped pass for a TD in week one against the Broncos, Cincinnati would be 3-0 with their other wins over Pittsburgh and Green Bay. Might want to take note as well all the Browns losses this season have been by double digits.

Cincinnati 27 Cleveland 6

Seattle (1-2) @ Indianapolis (3-0)
LINE: Indianapolis -13.5

The Colts run defense is ranked 22^nd so most people think Julius Jones is going to have a big day, but with Hasselback injured, the Colts will be able to focus more on the run. Seneca Wallace will be getting the start for Seattle and last week he looked good in Chicago, but he was coming off the bench in an emotional game they were in position to win. The dude played his balls off to say the least. It’s going to be extremely hard to match that intensity they were playing with last week after losing in the final moments.

The only way Seattle is going to stop the Colts is if Peyton Manning gets injured – knock on wood – but the guy has started 176 straight games. Last week, Cutler torched the Seahawks D’ for 247 yards and 3 TD’s while going 21 for 27. Peyton Manning will put up the same if not better stats. Even though Seattle has 9 sacks in 3 games, the Colts have only allowed 2 thus far, so if Peyton has time, game over. If Hasselback does play for any reason, he will only be hurting his team’s chances.

Indianapolis 31 Seattle 13

New York Giants (3-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
LINE: New York -10.5

The Chiefs are the new Lions! They have 0-16 staring them in the face. On paper, realistically, the only games the Chiefs have a shot at winning, is week 10 vs. Oakland who they’ve lost to already this year, and Week 15 vs. Cleveland (who very well might be 0-13 themselves). Point being, Kansas City is horrible, and Brandon Jacobs and Ahmed Bradshaw are going to run wild all over the Chiefs. Remember what TheCoach has said about the Giants before? This is a gang of ROAD WARRIORS (23-6 against the spread since 06’ and 17-2 in their last 19 ATS).

Larry Johnson will be shut down by the Giants defensive front. Year after year, these guys are a force to be reckoned with. Matt Cassel will probably take a bunch of sacks and try to force the ball to Dwayne Bowe with little success. A lot of people are concerned the Giants are playing they’re third road game in a row. No concern here at LDU, TheCoach knows best, and knows that the Giants will be 4-0 with 3 of their away games behind them.

New York Giants 27 Kansas City 6

Baltimore (3-0) @ New England (2-1)
LINE: New England -1.5

UPSET OF THE WEEK

I am having trouble picking this as my upset of the week due to the fact it’s an undefeated team I am choosing to win. This being said, the Pats know that this is an important game, if they lose and the Jets beat the Saints, New England will be 2 games back of the Jets and have suffered a loss to them. And considering the Patriots are at home and favoured, it could be considered an upset. This could also be the game of the week though.

New England put up 26 on the Falcons but looked like shit doing it. Fred Taylor did gain 105 yards, but Brady looked as inconsistent as he has all season and when he was throwing accurate passes, Galloway would drop the ball or Sam Aiken would run an incorrect route prompting a “How fucking hard is that?” from his quarterback. This is a side of Brady we haven’t seen, a frustrated, less calm and collective Tom.

The Jets and Ravens have similar defenses and we all know what New York did to New England two weeks ago. I don’t expect such an embarrassment, but I do expect a Baltimore victory. The Patriots woes aren’t just on offense, they are mainly on defense as I mentioned last week, and they will have a lot of trouble stopping Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Oh, and don’t expect Flacco to cool off any time soon. In all honestly, the public wont be shocked if Baltimore wins on Sunday, so it is a bit of a week selection for my upset, but there is no other game I feel I can put in that place, so why be foolish and take a risk when the reward is highly unlikely?

Baltimore 27 New England 23

Tampa Bay (0-3) @ Washington (1-2)
LINE: Washington -7.0

Finally Raheem Morris clues in and benches Byron Leftwich, too bad, there go all my $3 hand job jokes so I’m a little sad. This is good for Tampa Bay though, Leftwich is horrible, and I’m not saying that Josh Johnson is any better, but a least it’s a change. He’ll be able to scramble a bit but ultimately the Bucs need to get their ground game going via Cadillac Williams. I mentioned in my first ever post that Albert Haynesworth and his 100 million dollar contract wouldn’t be worth it. Well Washington is 17^th vs. the rush and last year they were 8^th. Yet again, a simple example of why TheCoach knows best.

How Jim Zorn still has a job is beyond me. He gave the ball to Jason Campbell twelve of the first sixteen plays of the game last week. If Zorn FINALLY understands he needs to get the ball to Portis, they will be able to control the clock and move the chains. The problem is, they are so inconsistent, especially in the red-zone and looking back to week 2, they moved the chains well against the Rams and almost lost only scoring 12 points.

Both teams have a lot to prove, one team just lost to a team who hadn’t won in over a season, and the other team just put up a big fat DONUT on the scoreboard at home. Couple trends are going to decide this game for me. Teams shutout are 16-8 against the spread the following week, and Jason Campbell is 1-6 as a favourite of -6.5 or more. The Redskins will win… barely.

Washington 16 Tampa Bay 13

Tennessee (0-3) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
Line: Tennessee -3.5

Since losing Haynesworth the Titans have been horrible on defense. How can one man make such a difference in one city, yet so little in the next? I don’t get it. Anyway, Maurice Jones-Drew should hit the century mark in this one and he needs to because although David Garrard looked good last week, keep in mind he was throwing against Houston who is just pathetic. Even though Tennessee has played weak defense, they know they need to win this game, and they know they aren’t as bad as Houston’s D. One team in NFL history has started 0-4 and made the playoffs, the 1992 Chargers and with Indianapolis in their conference at soon to be 4-0, this is as much of a must win situation there is – especially with facing Indianapolis and New England in upcoming weeks.

I see Chris Johnson again putting up huge numbers but if for any reason he cant, Kerry Collins should be able to pick apart the 30^th ranked pass defense with short passes. The Titans must win here and that is why I am betting on them, if they lose, their season is over. I’ll bet on a team who is do or die after losing as many games so far this season and the entire season of last.

Tennessee 24 Jacksonville 17

Oakland (1-2) @ Houston (1-2)
LINE: Houston -9.5

After looking great Week 1 against the Chargers, the Raiders have fallen back to earth and are yet again… the Raiders. This doesn’t mean Michael Bush and Darren McFadden won’t have good days. Houston allows a league worst 6.3 yards per carry and considering they only have 2 sacks in 3 games, Russell could have a good game if he makes smart plays. Hopefully Al Davis and Tom Cable don’t tell him to throw deep to Heyward-Bey again.

Houston should be able to put up points as they normally do. Matt Schaub has thrown for 657 yards and 7 touchdowns in his last 2 games after the Jets made him look like a bitch. Schaub is hot and I said in Week 1 if he stays healthy this year, he will have his break out season. It’s extremely hard to take 4 teams with all spreads of -9.5 or more this week, before I even approach the late games. If TheCoach has learnt anything though, its that around Week 4 the teams who are going to be dominant tend to hand out beatings and the teams who have trouble winning begin to realize they’re doomed for another season without playoff football.

Houston 31 Oakland 13

TheCoach has had a change of heart, as brutal as the Raiders offense is, the Texans D’ is just as bad, and quite frankly, I don’t know how Houston will cover double digits. (The same team who lost by 7 to Jacksonville last week)

Houston 27 Oakland 20