NFL Picks – Week 15 [Thursday & Saturday Night Football]

REST IN PEACE CHRIS HENRY
May 17th 1983 – December 17th 2009

TheCoach’s last two weeks haven’t looked great but did anyone expect the following to occur in week 14;

- Chris Redman looked horrible again the Bucs, even worse against the Eagles, and then he suddenly emerges against the Saints?

- The Bengals (9-3), who are known for playing games decided with-in 7 points or less, could not cover as +7.0 point underdogs, and could not pick off Brett Favre when he left the secondary a few early Christmas gifts they couldn’t catch.

- Peyton throws three INT’s and the Colts still win? and still cover? Damn…

- When Gradkowski got injured, the Raiders refused to play with any effect when JaMarcus Russell entered the game. Understandable of the teams part… but hard to predict an injury on the gamblers.

- The Patriots continue to turn the ball over the in red-zone with two against the Panthers.

**CLICK HERE For TheCoach’s Weekly Record And Record For Each Conference, Division and Team**

Indianapolis (13-0) @ Jacksonville (7-6)
LINE: Indianapolis (No line – unsure on starters playing time)

The Jaguars are continuing to not run the ball enough, which is forcing David Garrard to throw more often then he is used to and committing turnovers in the process. Before the Jags week 14 game vs. the Dolphins, Garrard led the lead in fumbles. Not something to brag about. Del Rio knows the Colts well, and knows in years past that Maurice Jones-Drew has excelled against the Colts. MJD will need to get the rock early and often for the Jags to take the pressure off of Garrard and allow him to do better than last week. Miami has a good defence but Garrard went 11-of-26 for 139 yards and struggled against Miami’s rookie cornerbacks. Mike Sims-Walker was playing injured though and should be able to have more of an effect on the game this week adding Garrard’s best option back into the game.

After the Colts clinched home-field advantage, sports illustrated’s Peter King speculated that Peyton and most of indianapolis’s starters would play the 1st quarter, before the 2nd stringers are subbed in to avoid any injury. At the same time, the Colts rookie-coach Caldwell (who has lead his team to a record of 13-0) has stated to the press that all starters will play as long as they are healthy and week 14′s game will be approached the same way as week’s 1-13 were. Hmm… with that being said, if Peyton plays, they will cover this 3.0 spread. The Colts have won 11 of the last 15 meetings… I can’t see them losing their first game if Peyton plays. If he doesn’t play, it’s a different story!

Trends

Last 15 meetings, Colts are 11-4 but 13 of 15 have been decided between 8 or less.
Del Rio is 12-7 against the spread after losing as a favourite and 7-3 against the spread in same-season divisional revenge games in his career (lost to Colts week 1; 12-10).
Jags are 17-11 ATS since 2006.

Indianapolis 24 Jacksonville 20

Dallas (8-5) @ New Orleans (13-0)
LINE: New Orleans -7.0

In the last few weeks, I’ve seen my record fall closer and closer to .500 and a large reason for it is because I have taken the Saints to cover against the Falcons twice, the Bucs, the Panthers and the Dolphins, none of which times they have. The time I bet against the spread and took the Pats to cover… they KILLED em!!

TheCoach expects a similar game (not quite the blow-out) but a dominating prime-time display of talent from the Saints. In their six home games this year, they average 36+ points per game and have allowed just over 21 points per game by opposing teams. Dallas struggled last week against the Chargers aerial attack and TheCoach doesn’t expect them to turn things around against Drew Brees and the number one offence. Week-in-week-out, we’ve seen the only way to stop the Saints is to get to Brees without blitzing as sending more than the front-four results in big-time plays from New Orleans. The Cowboys d-line is good, but DeMarcus Ware hurt his neck last week, is questionable this week and considering Brees has went down only 15 times in 13 games, don’t expect to see Brees on the ground very much Saturday Night.

Dallas will try to pound the ball with Marion Barber setting up Tony Romo is manageable 3rd downs and keep Drew Brees off the field as much as possible. TheCoach doesn’t see this working due to the fact Barber is still not running at 100% since his early season quad injury and the Saints have reemerged as a run-stop unit since Sedrick Ellis came back from injury. Tony Romo SUCKS in December and there is no reason the trend shouldn’t continue against the undefeated Saints. Yeah, yeah, the Saints almost lost to the Redskins and Falcons but they traveled to Washington and Atlanta and are a much better home-team than road-team. The Saints have won home games this year by scores of 45-27 (Detroit), 24-10 (Jets), 48-27 (Giants), 35-27 (Falcons), Panthers (30-20) and Patriots (37-17). Wins of 8, 10, 14, 18, 20 and 21. Give the seven points.

Trends:

Drew Brees is 22-12 against the spread off back-to-back-wins.
Saints 10-4 against the spread at home since 2008.
Home favourites coming off road wins of 1-3 points are 20-44 against the spread.
Romo is 2-13 against the spread after Nov 30th (0-4 as an underdog).
Wade Phillips is 2-7 against the spread after losing as a favourite.

New Orleans 37 Dallas 27

Also, Be Sure To Check Out:

NFL Picks – Week 15 [Early Games]

and;

NFL Picks – Week 15 [Late Games and Monday Nighter]