NFL Picks – Week 12 [Late Games and Monday Nighter]

**CLICK HERE For TheCoach’s Weekly Record And Record For Each Conference, Division and Team**

Chicago (4-6) @ Minnesota (9-1)
LINE: Minnesota -10.5

TheCoach said in his edition of The 5th Quarter – Week 11, that no team comes out to play better football every week than the Minnesota Vikings. Brett Farve is ON fire throwing 21 touchdowns to 3 interceptions and has his highest quarterback rating of his career at 112.0 (he has never been over 100.0 in a season). The reason Favre is playing so well is simple… he has one of the best offensive lines in the league, and he has never had a running back as good as Adrian Peterson. The Bears can’t put pressure on the QB, they havn’t been able to stop the run (giving up 781 yards in the last five games) and their secondary isn’t picking up the slack. Peterson has a big day, Favre has a big day, Percy Harvin has a big day and they move to 10-1. Easily.

Why so easily? Because Jay Culter is a gat-damn pussy and Chicago’s offensive line doesn’t pass block for him. They also don’t run-block for Matt Forte who will have no chance against Jared Allen and the Williams Wall. Cutler has no offensive weapons and won’t unless the Bears make a blockbuster trade in future years. Chicago gave up 1st and 2nd round draft picks to acquire Culter… Oops..

This game is going to be ugly. Games are won in the trenches and that is the reason Minnesota is 9-1. They have a great D-Line, great O-Line and Chicago doesn’t (and Jay Cutler is a pussy).

Minnesota 30 Chicago 13

Jacksonville (6-4) @ San Francisco (4-6)
LINE: San Francisco -3.0

4-6 49ers’ favoured over 6-4 Jags?

Jacksonville is 6-4 after starting 0-2 and were not above .500 until week 10. What this means, is they can now see the playoffs. San Francisco started 3-1 (with the loss coming in the dying seconds to Minnesota) and play-offs were looking great but having lost 5 of their last 6 games and now sit at 4-6. They are doubting themselves while Jacksonville is riding their momentum.

Last week Jacksonville barely got past Buffalo and they know they got lucky, and consider it a wake up call to the Jags. They will not take San Francisco lightly as with a win, the Jags could move to 7-4 an start to solidify a spot in the playoffs. They know they MUST win this game, and also week 17 against Cleveland which would put them at 8 wins. Their 4 other games are against Houston, Miami, Indianapolis and New England. If they can with one or two of those games (Miami and/or Houston??), 9-7 or 10-6 may be good enough for the playoffs. Jones Drew will have a great day and so will Garrard as the 49ers’ D’ has looked terrible in recent weeks. Garrard was 21-30 for 215 yards, 1 touchdown and one interception against the Bills good and interception happy secondary.

TheCoach doesn’t like Alex Smith and the last time he faced the Jags, he went 8 for 24 (33.3% completion percentage) and had 123 yards with an interception. In the last 2 seasons worth of football, he has thrown 28 touchdowns to 38 interceptions. He has lost 14 fumbles in his career with a total of 27, meaning he loses just over half of the fumbles he has. He is better than Shaun Hill but who the fuck is Shaun Hill? Exactly. 49ers need to start loosing games to draft a high profile QB… and do your research this time. He can’t have any of the same tendencies as douche-bag Smith. Frank Gore will have all the focus on him and the Jags are 17th against the rush which means with the ability to focus on Gore only, their run-defense should improve.

Jacksonville will be pissed they are underdogs against a 4-6 team who has lost five of their last six. The Jags also thrive as underdogs and are 16-10 against the spread a a dog since 2006.

Jacksonville 23 San Francisco 20

Kansas City (3-7) @ San Diego (7-3)
LINE: San Diego -13.5

Again, I told you Jamaal Charles was good. Todd Haley actually started reading my NFL Picks and realized “hey, if TheCoach said try it… I must utilize his knowledge”… well they put up 27 against the Steelers. The only problem is San Diego knows Jamaal Charles is good and they will shut him down early making Cassel have to convert on third and long. He was great in New England when he had Welker and Moss to throw to but he wont be so great Sunday for the Chiefs with Bowe suspended, Chambers old and washed up, and Tony Gonzalez gone to Atlanta. The Chargers defense is to good and won’t let a back-down cover touchdown late in the game… they have to much pride.

The Denver Broncos are better than the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego STOMPED Denver last week 32-3 to take the division lead. You can expect San Diego to walk all over Kansas City just like they did in Week 7 when they won 37-7 (in Kansas City). The Chargers are hot right now, in fact they are one of the NFL’s hottest teams and have knocked off five straight wins. Their three losses have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver (combined record 17-13) with seven wins against Oakland (twice), Miami, Kansas City, New York Giants, Philadelphia and Denver (combined record 28-31 by a combined score of 192-102). Game. Set. Match.

Trends are in San Diego’s advantage as well as they are 11-8 against the spread in November games since 2001 and teams that beat the SuperBowl Champs are 6-12 against the spread the following week. Sorry Kansas City… you’ve had your fun.

San Diego 34 Kansas City 13

Arizona (7-3) @ Tennessee (4-6)
LINE: Tennessee -2.5

In the Jags game, TheCoach mentioned that it was weird that the 4-6 49ers’ were favoured over the 6-4 Jags. In this game… the 4-6 Titans are favoured over the 7-3 Cards? BUT TheCoach AGREES with this spread of -1.5 to the Titans and I’ll explain the difference in this game from the Jags/49ers and why TheCoach is picking the Titans.

The 49ers are favoured and have lost 5 of 6 (and could only muster up 10 points in their win against the Bears and should have lost if Cutler did throw 5 INTs). The Titans, since Vince Young has taken over have won four straight and put up 30, 34, 41, and 20 points averaging 31.25 points in that span. Chris Johnson started the season a little slow but if he can average what he has on the ground (145 yards), in his next 6 games… he will break the single season rushing record. Gat-Damn!! Vince Young has helped Johnson so much it crazy! It should also be noted in his four starts, Young has only been sacked once… Tennessee has a good O-Line.

Arizona has won 6 of 7 but they have won them against the Texans (5-5 and barely won),  Seattle twice (3-7), New York (during their bed-shitting ordeal), Chicago (4-6) and the Rams (1-9). The sole loss came against the best rushing team they played (the Panthers) and they were embarrassed 34-21. This is a problem for the Cards because Tennessee can run the ball… and run it well! Warner suffered a concussion last week so he could have trouble against the Titans secondary, finding Boldin and Fitzgerald for routine first-downs won’t be so easy and TheCoach likes the way the Titans and Vince Young have been playing lately.

Vince Young is 22-11 against the spread as a starter (media/public don’t believe in him but are starting to) and the Titans are 20-11 as underdogs in the post-Steve-McNair era.

Tennessee 31 Arizona 27

Pittsburgh (6-4) @ Baltimore (5-5) *SNF*
LINE: Baltimore -2.5

Big Ben suffered a concussion last week but it has been reported that he is going to start against the Ravens on Sunday Night. With Roethlisberger in the line-up, he should be able to get maximum protection schemes from his offense and torch a Ravens secondary that hasn’t looked good lately. Rashard Mendenhall may not have a huge impact but if he can get things going, the Ravens aren’t what they used to be giving up 100+ yards to Cedric Benson twice and Adrian Peterson once. Regardless of Roethlisberger being hurt.. the Steelers as a unit NEED to find a way to win this game in order to make the playoffs.

Joe Flacco hasn’t played that well lately and it’s not due to a sophomore slump, as there is a lot of talk about his ankle bothering him in recent weeks. He played good against the Colts going 23-of-35 for 256 yards but had an INT and no TD’s and actually hasn’t thrown a touchdown in three straight games. As we saw last week, Matt Cassel was able to pass on the Polamalu-less Steelers so Flacco should be able to get things going. It’s too bad the Steelers rush defense is top in the league and they are not going to let Ray Rice win this game single handily, and they have no problem putting it in the hands of a quarterback who may be doubting himself.

The Steelers own the Ravens and beat them in the three games they played last year.. you could call this revenge for the Ravens, but the Steelers play smash mouth football and you can’t get revenge when you can’t win. Big Ben is 66-26 straight up as a starter and 52-40 against the spread. He is also 20-12 against the spread vs. the AFC North while the Ravens tend to play poorly after a home game and are 11-22 against the spread since 2005 in those instances.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER HAS BEEN LISTED ON SATURDAY AS NOT PLAYING DUE TO PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES TAKEN BY THE TEAM AND THE PLAYER. TAKE THE RAVENS. No Polamolu… no Roethlisberger.. no way.

Baltimore gets back into the division with a win and is tied with Pittsburgh at 6-5.

Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 20

Baltimore 23 Pittsburgh 16

New England (7-3) @ New Orleans (10-0) *MNF*
LINE: New Orleans -1.5

*GAME OF THE GAT-DAMN WEEK*

New England let the game against the Colts slip away from them and lost in the dying seconds. The Colts look like they could easily go 16-0 now, and the Pats aren’t about to let another team get one step closer. After this week (if the Saints win), they face Washington, Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina, which are all beatable teams (in fact they have beat the three in their division already).

The Saints can’t not stop the run. They have allowed their last five opponents to rush for 115+ yards and the injury to Sedrick Ellis hurt them a lot but he is expected to be back in the line-up along with cornerback Jabari Greer and safety Darren Sharper. I don’t expect these three will be at 100%, TheCoach expects they are playing because this game is huge. With the run game able to be some-what productive, you will see what you usually do out of Tom Brady and the Pats. Wes Welker’s short passes across the middle and him cutting up field for first downs. Randy Moss going deep and pulling in one-handed catches. Ben Watson cutting across the middle and catching post patterns after the entire defense has focused elsewhere.

The Saints are great, don’t get me wrong but they don’t need to win this game as much as the Patriots do. Yeah, it is a huge statement game for them on a national stage and they’re at home but if New England keeps winning, they may be able to clitch 2nd spot and a BYE week in the wild-card round of the playoffs… New Orleans practically has that already. Meanwhile Indy is 10-0 and the closest teams are at 7-3 (New England, San Diego and Cincinnati). 2nd place in the standings is up for grabs in the AFC.

This game is going to be fucking awesome! Drew Brees is a machine and give him the time in the pocket, and he is so productive and consistent hitting all his numourous weapons downfield, who make phenomenal plays. Don’t expect a 0-0 halftime like two weeks ago when Baltimore faced Cleveland the Monday Nighter. TV analysts are backing New England, the public is backing New England (78% of bets), and TheCoach is backing New England! The SuperDome is going to be NUTS on Monday Night, but expect a Brady-to-Moss early TD to silence the crowd.

Brady is 9-2 against the spread in domes, 106-31 straight up and 82-53 against the spread as a starter. The Pats are 24-12 against the NFC since 2001. The Saints are 26-40 against the spread at home since 2001. Pats win in a close one!!

Patriots 31 New Orleans 30

Also, Be Sure To Check Out:

NFL Picks – Week 12 [Early Games]