NFL Picks – SuperBowl XLIV – Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

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Indianapolis Colts (16-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (15-3)

LINE: Indianapolis -5.5

As many expected, Peyton and the Colts steam-rolled over the Jets for an easy win… or so it seemed but at one point early in the game, they trailed 17-6. The Colts cannot allow themselves to go down by that many points to the Saints because as good as Manning is at making fourth quarter comebacks, the Saints are an offensive powerhouse and will continue to score throughout the game. The Saints didn’t play they’re best football against the Vikings and are hoping they saved their best game for last. They barely squeaked past Minnesota, only because Favre classically threw an interception and the Vikings never regained possession (if they kicked the ball on the Favre-INT play, Minnesota would have attempted a 56-yard field goal). Mistake? I’d say. Just run the ball with AP.

Indianapolis: New Orleans got in Brett Favre’s face two weeks ago and although they never sacked him, they did hurry him many times and put him on his ass at least four times that TheCoach counted. If the Saints take the same approach with Peyton Manning, they are making the biggest mistake in SuperBowl history. Manning is a football genius and in TheCoach’s eyes, the best quarterback to ever play the game. He is what you would call the ultimate student of the game. Dude actually sleeps with him playbook and 75% of the time, he knows what the opposing defence will do (no spy-gate included). Although I call myself TheCoach, I am no NFL coach, but I would be surprised if Sean Payton has any game-plan that will work in pressuring Peyton Manning and winning the game. Not only do I feel the Saints will have as much trouble as any other team stopping Manning, if they focus 100% on Manning, their poor rush defence will hurt them even more. The Saints have allowed over 4.5 yards per carry in their last four games and its hard to believe but the Colts actually out-rushed the Jets running game last week (yeah, the 32nd rush offence out-rushed the 1st). The Saints have to hope for a few odd turnovers or Peyton to hurt himself in order to stop the Colts from putting up points. With Manning playing all 60 minutes, the last Colts loss was October 28th 2008… you want to bet against that straight up?

New Orleans: There is something that concerns TheCoach about the Colts defence. Everyone is saying the Colts have the better D’ to back Manning but TheCoach took a look into who the Colts defence has faced and other than Warner, Schuab and Brady, the QB’s they faced were Flacco twice, Sanchez twice and Vince Young… not so bad eh? What about Garrard twice, Henne, Hasselbeck, Collins, Bulger, Smith, Orton and Fitzpatrick… If you are wondering what some of their first names are, you probably aren’t the only one and by no means can they be put in the category of Drew Brees. Besides Manning, Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the game today and commands his offence with precision and has many weapons to choose from. If Dwight Freeney is injury, this could be huge for  Brees because Mathis will be the other one able to get pressure on him. TheCoach expects Freeney to play but he won’t be 100% and there is really no way of knowing how effective he will be… (remember T.O. years ago). With Colston, Thomas, Bush, Shockey, Meachem and many others, the Saints definitely have more (known) weapons than the Colts do and the absence of Freeney could be huge. The Saints have the ability to run the ball and fling the ball down field as well unlike the Colts and if the Saints can stop the Colts running game, it will all on Peyton. Brees has the advantage of being able to depend on the abilities of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush.

In summary, how could this SuperBowl be better than the last two? The Giants knocking off the undefeated Patriots in 08′, topped by the last second heroics of Roethlisbergers and Holmes in 09′… but keep in mind this is the first time since 1993 that both #1 seeds have faced each other in the SuperBowl. TheCoach has been looking forward to this game since week 13 when I predicted a Colts-Saints SuperBowl and I can’t wait to chugabeerandwatchManningvsBrees. If you bet on the spread, take the Saints to cover because how possible can you give up almost a touchdown against a team who was -14.5 point favourites the entire season. With that being said, the Colts win straight up… possible with Peyton Manning last-minute touchdown.

Brees is 22-14 against the spread off back-to-back wins.
Manning is 6-3 straight up vs. 4-3 defences in the playoffs.

TheCoach’s Prediction:
Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 27

	SAINTS	COLTS
RECORD	15\3	16\2
HOME	8\2 (ATS 5\5)	9\1 (ATS 5\5)
AWAY	7\1 (ATS 3\5)	7\1 (ATS 5\3
ATS	8\10	10\8
CONF.	11\3	12\1
NON CONF.	4\0	4\1
POINTS	586\383	466\327
Meeting	NO MEETING IN REGULAR SEASON

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UFC 109 – Relentless – Preview and Predictions by TheCoach