NFL Picks – NFC Conference Championship – Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints [Sunday @ 6:40]

TheCoach | Jan 21, 2010 | Comments 5

Minnesota Vikings (13-4) @ New Orleans Saints (14-3)

Line: New Orleans -3.5

** AT THE BOTTOM OF EACH GAME WRITE-UP YOU WILL FIND A CHART WITH EACH TEAMS STATS **
*CLICK HERE For TheCoach’s Weekly Record And Record For Each Conference, Division and Team*

Drew Brees and the Saints looked like the Saints who started off the season 13-0 as Brees went 23-of-32 for 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 125.4 (regular season he averaged 109.6). After three mediocre games to finish the season, the Saints exploded against the Cardinals putting up 45 points and the scariest part of all is that Brees did most of his damage in the first three quarters because with a 30+ point lead, the Saints went run-heavy to run out the clock. The Vikings and Favre the same, after losing three of their last five game, they came out and bitch-slapped the red-hot Cowboys 34-3. Favre went 15-of-24 for 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and questionable have the best post-season game of his career, to go along with questionable the best season of his career. The Vikings will need Favre to put up big numbers again on Sunday, as they are facing the #1 scoring team in the NFL (Saints 31.9 points per game). It’s it a good thing the Vikings are #2 (29.4 points per game) with the defence to back it up. Who wants the SuperBowl more? Brees, who is in his second NFC Championship in four years or Favre who would love nothing more than to close out his career with a appearance in the SuperBowl.

Minnesota: Minnesota looked mighty impressive last week stomping the Cowboys in a 34-3 win but TheCoach isn’t sure that was the most impressive story-line of the weekend. Not only did the Saints put up 45 points on the Cardinals, but they held their dynamic offence to just 14 points. The way New Orleans finished the season, and also how their pass unit was playing was no secret and the fact they came out and held Warner and Co. to an average game was huge considering Warner was coming off his best performance in his career. Also, Brett Favre is coming off the best game in his post-season career but there is a huge difference between playing the Cowboys at home, and the Saints on the road. With Jabari Greer, Sedrick Ellis and other key defensive players now healthy, their return has made such a huge difference. Tim Hightower opened up the game with a 70 yard run but after that, they weren’t able to muster anything. This isn’t good new for a Adrian Peterson and the Vikings, who hasn’t ripped off 100 yards on the ground since week 10 vs. the Lions. Sidney Rice is Favre’s #1 target, and there is no reason why Greer shouldn’t be able to cover him. After all, he did a hell of a job on Larry Fitzgerald last week. After Warner went 29-of-33 for 5 touchdowns, he followed it up with 17-of-26 and an interception. I love the way Minnesota has been playing this year and their offence was built around the need of a quarterback before they picked up Favre but until their run-game can consistently help out Favre, it’s going to be extremely tough to travel into the SuperDome and win the game yourself… even if you are Brett Favre.

New Orleans: Last week, the Cowboys didn’t actually play as bad as the 34-3 thrashing intended. Dallas moved the chains early on in the game and had positioned themselves for a touchdown and a field goal before committing stupid penalties and turnovers but as soon as Flozell Adams went down, Jared Allen took over the game getting to Romo on almost every play. TheCoach doesn’t see Allen having the same type of impact this week unless the Saints suffer a huge blow during the game to their offensive line. No team has been able to pressure Brees this year because he is protected by one of the best offensive lines in football. After the Cardinals mauled Aaron Rodgers the week before, they couldn’t even bring down Brees once last week. If you watched the Cardinals-Saints game, you saw how good New Orleans can be when they play Saints football. It is not only because of their vast amount of talent, but because of how their head coach utilizes the talent. Sean Payton is a great head coach and at times in the game last week had linebackers covering wide-outs and had the entire Arizona defence bite on the flee-flicker that scored a touchdown. E.J. Henderson’s absence at middle linebacker didn’t hurt the Vikings last week because Romo had no time to do anything anyways, but Sean Payton and Drew Brees have WAY to many weapons to not take full advantage of a team who hasn’t looked the same since Henderson went down. Last but certainly not least, the fact Reggie Bush is starting to look like the player we expected him to be, could mean big things come Sunday for the Saints.

In summary, both teams had phenomenal games last week, thanks in large part to home-field advantage and Warner and Romo not being able to communicate with their team. Romo and Warner combined for seven sacks and four fumbles, and that itself goes to show how tough it is to play on the road in the playoffs. NFL fans are like crazier than any other sport and with that being said, the Saints SuperDome is one of the craziest stadiums in the NFL and even though Favre has all the experience in the world… you’d be surprised how much home-field advantage can help a team and hurt another. If this game was in Minnesota, I’d pick the Vikings but Minnesota is not a good road team. They are 9-0 at home, yet lost their last three games on the road in the regular season to Chicago, Carolina and Arizona.

TheCoach’s Predictions:
New Orleans 30 Minnesota 20

SAINTS OFFENCE:

Points Per Game – 31.9 (1st)
Yards Per Game – 403.8 (1st)
Pass Yards Per Game – 272.2 (4th)
Rush Yards Per Game – 131.6 (6th)

SAINTS DEFENCE:

Points Per Game – 21.3 (20th)
Yards Per Game – 357.8 (25th)
Pass Yards Per Game – 235.6 (26th)
Rush Yards Per Game – 122.2 (21st)
Fumbles Forced/Recovered – 15/13 (13th/5th)
Interceptions – 26 (3rd)
Sacks - 35 (13th)

VIKINGS OFFENCE:

Points Per Game – 29.4 (2nd)
Yards Per Game – 379.6 (5th)
Pass Yards Per Game – 259.8 (8th)
Rush Yards Per Game – 119.9 (13th)

VIKINGS DEFENCE:

Points Per Game – 19.5 (10th)
Yards Per Game – 305.5 (6th)
Pass Yards Per Game – 218.4 (19th)
Rush Yards Per Game – 87.1 (2nd)
Fumbles Forced/Recovered – 23/13 (1st/5th)
Interceptions – 11 (26th)
Sacks - 48 (1st)