NFL Picks – Week 17 [Late Games and Sunday Nighter] (No MNF)

*Please read the early games thank you message from TheCoach*

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Tennessee (7-8) @ Seattle (5-10)
LINE: Tennessee -4.5
LINE CHANGED TO -5.5

The Titans are out of the playoffs but still have something to play for as Chris Johnson is 128 yards away from the eclipsing the historic mark of 2000 rushing yards. Will he be able to surpass 2000? Absolutely as the Seahawks have allowed 287 yards in their past two outings against the Buccaneers (lost 24-7) and Packers (lost 48-3). In their past three games, Seattle has been outscored 106-24. Wow, I have seen teams shut it down before, but shutting it down with four games left in the regular season is just crazy. Seattle teams under Jim Mora have had a history of doing this in prior years as well. When thoughts of the playoffs are all but lost, the Seahawks players stop trying and make their coach look like a meathead. Tennessee right now has a top-3 running back, a top-3 offensive line and a quarterback who is a threat to move the chains with his feet on any given down. If the run-game for some reason is not producing (it will produce, trust me, no one can stop the Titans run-game), Vince Young wont have any problems passing on a secondary that has surrendered 250+ yards through the air in all their games since the start of November.

Matt Hasselbeck is playing the worst football of his career. I don’t know if he is taking tips from Marc Bulger or Jay Cutler but either way he needs to stop. He is taking WAY to many sacks (Bulger) and throwing way to many interceptions (Cutler) and as soon as Tennessee puts any pressure on Hasselbeck, he will lob the ball up into double, triple and sometimes even quadruple coverage in order to avoid getting hit which more often than not, result in an interception. Prime example is Hasselbeck’s last two contests; his stats are 46-of-83 for 454 yards, two touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 4 sacks and a fumble. Let’s hope you don’t have him in your fantasy league… ouch. The problems don’t end there as not only can Seattle’s offensive line not block for their QB, but their run game suffers drastically from poor blocking up front. Don’t be surprised if you see Seattle flop on Sunday and hand Jim Mora the final straw that broke the camels back. Mora won’t be back in 2010 and he can thank the mentality of his team for it, but since it has been an ongoing problem in years past… maybe Mora should have been gone long ago.

Tennessee 31 Seattle 13

Washington (4-11) @ San Diego (12-3)
LINE: San Diego -4.5

This line came out when it was first announced by A.J. Smith (vice president and general manager of the Chargers) that San Diego will be playing this game as if it were a pre-season contest. Twenty-four hours after the line was posted San Diego’s coach Norv Turner said the following; “Playing and staying in game shape, to me, is big but it’s not only how you stay sharp, but how you get better. We’re going to play our players. They’re going to play and they want to play.”

Well until I heard that statement, I was taking the Redskins to cover the spread in a close battle won by the Chargers. After hearing what Turner said… it changes everything. With San Diego wanting to play hard enough to stay sharp and continue to get better as a team, the starters will need to play and won’t be taken out of the game unless than are playing  good football. There is still a chance that the starters will be taken out late in the game the score is insurmountable but at that point TheCoach hopes it will be enough to cover the -4.5 points.

Washington has looked horrible lately. They are averaging 5 points per game in the last two contents (45-10 loss to the Giants and a 17-0 loss to the Cowboys)… and the Redskins see the Giants and Cowboys twice a year, have a bitter rivalry and know them as well as any team in the league. San Diego on the other hand is in the AFC, a completely different conference than the Redskins, and to top that off, Washington will be travelling to the dreaded west-coast and we all know how east-coast teams generally fair on the west-coast with the time change. If the Skins’ couldn’t keep it close with a division foe, than how will they ever keep the Chargers from steam-rolling them? Jason Campbell will only be able to put a point total in double figures on the scoreboard if the Chargers bench their starters at half time and unless the Chargers are winning by 14+, I don’t see Norv taking out his team with so much time left in the game to polish skills.

If you see Billy Volek and Mike Tolbert come in for the Chargers early in the game, expect TheCoach is on his couch cursing at the TV as the Skins’ defence will have no problem dismantling the Chargers back-ups.

The Chargers are 8-2 against the spread at home the week after playing on the east coast, while Philip Rivers is 16-8 against the spread as a starter. Teams who were shut out the week before (Dallas beat Washington 17-0) are 19-8 against the spread the following week.

San Diego 27 Washington 12

Kansas City (3-12) @ Denver (8-7)
LINE: Denver -13.5

Last time these teams met in week 13 Denver thumped Kansas City 44-13 but in that meeting the Chiefs did not have their #1 wide-out Dwayne Bowe due to a four-game suspension. The return of Bowe has put Cassel’s best target back onto the field and he is a threat to make big plays as well as opening up opportunities for other players. Jamaal Charles has also emerged as the star running-back for the Chiefs and back in week 13 was only given 19 carries (which at the time was his second largest amount of carries in a game) but in the following three games, Charles has been given the rock an average of 27 times. Seems as if it took Todd Haley 14-16 weeks to find out what TheCoach has been telling you since Week 1… get the ball in Charles’ hands. If Charles can put up 138 yards, he will have rushed for 1000 on the season which is a number he will certainly be gunning for and the way the Bronco’s run-defence has been this year (hot one month, cold the next), I expect the Chiefs to keep this game much closer than their week 13 blow-out was.

This is a must win for the Broncos as they are in the 7^th spot in the standings and will need a win, combined with a Jets (playing Cincinnati) or Ravens (playing Oakland) loss. Since it has been announced the Bengals will be resting players, expect the Broncos to miss the playoffs due to another second-half collapse much like last season. This is a prime-example of “if a team needs to win a game, they probably aren’t that good to begin with” and what it boils down to, Denver isn’t good enough to be 13.5 point favourites, against anyone. In six of their previous nine contests the Broncos have put up the following amount of points; 19, 16, 3, 17, 10 and 7… go ahead and lay two touchdowns to a team who has trouble even scoring as many points as the line indicates they’ll win by. As much as I hate Jay Cutler, it’s starting to become more and more obvious how much of a down-grade Orton is from Cutler. Orton is a smart quarterback and can read defences with some of the best in the game, but his inability to stretch the field out with the long ball will be what holds him back through his entire career. When you can’t throw the ball deep, defences realize this and move up to eliminate the run… which is large reason why Denver has only 245 yards in their past three games.

The home-team has won 14 of the last 17 meetings while the Chiefs are 8-3 against the spread as a double-digit underdog since 06’ and 15-8 against the spread as a road underdog since 07’. The Broncos are 9-25 against the spread as a favourite since 06’ and 1-10 against the spread as favourites of 3.5 of more since 08’.

Denver 27 Kansas City 20

Baltimore (10-5) @ Oakland (5-10)
LINE: Baltimore -10.5

The Ravens have the easiest route to the playoffs as they control their own destiny facing a team who, to put it simply, in their last five seasons before this year, have won 20 of 60 games and covered 50% of their games played (surprisingly enough). This year, they aren’t much off their pace with five wins but what concerns me is that four of their wins have been over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Denver but they have also lost to Cleveland 23-9, Washington 34-13 and even Kansas City 16-10. If Charlie Frye was healthy, I probably wouldn’t even consider taking the Raiders. Yes, I know they play up to the potential of their opponents but Baltimore fate rests in the hand of this game. Win and you are in, so expect them to play balls out on Sunday.  The Raiders are decent against the pass (at least better than they are against the run) and will have no chance at stopping Ray Rice considering they have given up 100+ to twelve of the fifteen running backs they’ve played this season; including the Browns last week (164 yards). As long as the Ravens stick to running the ball that will place Flacco in manageable third down situations they should roll right through Oakland and into the playoffs.

Charlie Frye is terrible… completely horrible, and it will be on his shoulders to play spoiler if Oakland wants any shot at beating Baltimore. Baltimore has a superb run-stop unit and hasn’t allowed more than 4.1 yards per carry from any running back since mid-October. The reason the Raiders beat the Broncos two weeks ago was because Oakland was able to pick apart the Broncos run-defence, something that will have a much harder task against Baltimore stingy defence. With Justin Fargas putting up poor numbers, it will be on Frye who last week passed for 333 yards against Cleveland but also threw three interceptions so all signs point to Frye either throwing picks, getting re-concussed or being sacked so many times his body shuts down.

Last week Baltimore had an emotional loss to Pittsburgh and if it weren’t for penalties and mistakes, they could have easily won last week. Don’t think this isn’t in the back of the Ravens minds as they take out their anger on a brutal Raiders team.

Baltimore 31 Oakland 17

Green Bay (10-5) @ Arizona (10-5)
LINE: Arizona -3.5

Alright, week 17 is a tough week to bet on generally but this week is one for the ages with so many fucked up spreads and teams resting starters plus Minnesota losing last Monday made things a whole lot more interesting in the NFC. At the moment Philadelphia holds the #2 seed and could hold onto it with a win against Dallas. If Philadelphia loses to Dallas, the Cowboys could move into the 2^nd seed if Minnesota lose. If Arizona wins, Minnesota loses and Dallas beat the Eagles, Arizona could take the #2 seed. See what I mean? It’s all messed up and to make a long story short. Arizona can move up, and Green Bay can’t but Arizona would need a lot of help to move up in the standings enough to get a BYE as Minnesota and Philadelphia would both have to lose in the same week (something that hasn’t occurred all season).

My thoughts are this. Philadelphia wins keeps the #2 seed, Minnesota wins and keep #3, Arizona wins keeping the 4^thseed, making Green Bay the 5^th seed and Dallas the 6^th.

What would occur after all that? Green Bay would fly home Sunday Night, and there would be no sense in unpacking because later on in the week are going to fly back to Arizona to face the Cardinals in back to back weeks (may also occur with New York Jets and Cincinnati and Philadelphia and Dallas).

If in fact it occurs as I think it will (there is a high chance these teams meet next week dependent on many outcomes, unless crazy things occur), than Green Bay and Arizona would both be completely stupid to play all their cards and show their hand. Both offences will probably rest starters and if this happens, when Aaron Rodgers comes out… in comes Matt Flynn? Yeah, I know you’ve never heard of him, and that is why you are going to take the Cardinals this week (only if you have a gun to your head as I’d avoid this game at all costs). Flynn has thrown a total of 14 passes and completed eight for 57 total yards in his career. The experience of Matt Leinart should have you leaning to Arizona regardless but with Green Bay having nothing to play for, and not wanting to expose their game-plan for the following week (either will Arizona) I’d take the Cardinals in a contest that doesn’t matter.

As I said, don’t bet on this game because you will regret it one way or another.

Arizona 17 Green Bay 13

Philadelphia (11-4) @ Dallas (10-5) *GAME DECIDES DIVISION & HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE
LINE: Dallas -2.5

In week 9, these teams met and I made the mistake of taking the Eagles to cover -3.5. At the time both teams were 5-2 and I figured McNabb would out play Romo and I was wrong on every level. McNabb was still recovering from his rib injury and the Cowboys held him to 16-of-30 for 227 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Since that lost though, the Eagles have went 6-1 in the past seven weeks and looked great in the process. With the loss of center Jamaal Jackson, Andy Reid has moved over Nick Cole from right guard but this has vacated that position which is being filled by Max Jean-Gilles who will have trouble blocking anyone, cause he sucks. The rest of the offensive line will help him out though as well as McCoy or Westbrook picking up blocks as well. McNabb is healthy (even though he slighty tweaked his hamstring last week) and the Eagles are hotter than ever, so I expect a better performance out of McNabb than in their last meeting. If Dallas plays the way they have the past two weeks, McNabb could have his hands full as they’ve given Drew Brees his worst game of the season and their first loss as well as a 17-0 shut out over Washington last week. With all the fire-power the Eagles have, don’t expect a donut this week. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… McNabb, Vick, Westbrook, McCoy, Celek, Jackson, Avant.. I honestly love watching them play.

Tony Romo has looked amazing in his last 4 starts throwing for 8 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and 300 yards in 3 of the 4 games. What happened to the Romo of old who constantly choked in December? Romo should continue his solid numbers against the Eagles but it will be tough to not throw a pick or get sacked as the Eagles excel in both departments. As long as the Eagles stop the run like they did in week 9 (Cowboys had 76 yards on the ground) it will be up to Romo to win another game late in the season. He has gotten rid of the curse and is starting to make people believe he is the real deal and if he wins this Sunday, many will agree that Romo chokes no more (unless they lose first games of the playoffs because were talking about a team who hasn’t won in the post-season since 1996). The game will ultimately be decided by the Eagles ability to put pressure on Romo and blanket Miles Austin which will force Romo to constantly check off to Witten.

Before I go ahead and crown Romo for finally producing last in the season, TheCoach needs to see him win this game, and win a play-off game. Then I will be sold on Tony Romo (and consider adding his jersey to my collection as Dallas is one of the six teams TheCoach is missing). Until that happens, Ill take the points and the Eagles as they have won 13 of the last 19 meetings and Andy Reid is 7-4 against the spread in same-season divisional revenge games.

Philadelphia 23 Dallas 20

Cincinnati (10-5) @ New York Jets (8-7)  *SNF
LINE: New York Jets -9.5

Most people think that the Eagles/Cowboys game should be moved to the Sunday Night slot; I disagree… yeah the Bengals will be resting their starters but I want to see a team fight for the playoffs… not another NFC East battle in prime-time, regardless of what is at stake.

If Houston beats New England earlier on in the day, Cincinnati will have a reason to play hard as they could move up to the 3rd seed which, call me crazy, but if the Bengals and Patriots ended up in the AFC Conference championship, wouldn’t you rather have home-field advantage? Exactly. Don’t think that I am saying that is going to happen. I am just stating moving up to the 3rd seed as well as knocking out the Jets from playoff contention both hold value, where as if the Patriots win… Cincinnati will be locked into the 4th seed and really have no reason to risk injury or show their hand to a potential playoff foe. The Jets are a superb run-stop unit, and haven’t allowed more than 3.2 yards per carry to four of their last five opponents so Benson won’t generate much offence on the ground. Carson Palmer generally would have the luxury of throwing downfield whether it be for Ocho Cinco to battle Darrelle Revis or to another receiver who isn’t blanketed by a cornerback. The reason I say generally is because the weather network is reporting winds will be between 20-35 mph – do you know what its like to throw a football in that? If you don’t, do yourself a favour and put your money back in your pocket.

Last week when the Jets beat the Colts, Rex Ryan made it clear he didn’t want to let Mark Sanchez turn the ball over as he handed the ball off 42 times compared to 23 passes. With 20-35 mph winds gusting through the Meadowlands, it’s obvious what is going to happen this week. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene will get the ball 70% of the time while Mark Sanchez refuses to air it out downfield. If Cincinnati is resting their starters, the run-game could have a good day, if the Bengals play the game, different story but either way they will have the ability to stack the line of scrimmage as neither teams passing game will be effective if in fact it is a windy susan on Sunday Night.

If the wind is howling, there is no way that -8.5 points will be covered. Honestly, it’d be hard to cover -8.5 even if the Bengals played their back-ups the entire game. Look at it this way, crazy winds earlier in the season resulted in a 6-3 win for Buffalo over Cleveland and a 13-6 win for Cleveland over Pittsburgh. Wind = low scoring games. If you don’t remember either of those games, you probably took the Jets to cover as well as Pittsburgh… just like TheCoach. Be smarter this time, know the weather and that wind is a bigger roadblock than snow or rain. The ball will travels through rain or snow, but try going deep into 30 mph winds without getting picked off… if you’re successful, I owe you a beer.

New York Jets 16 Cincinnati 13

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NFL Picks – Week 17 [Early Games and ThankYou message from TheCoach]