NFL Picks – Divisional Round – New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers [Sunday @ 4:30]

TheCoach | Jan 13, 2010 | Comments 1

New York Jets (10-7) @ San Diego Chargers (12-4)

LINE: San Diego -7.5

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The New York Jets are the NFL’s cinderella team in the 2009-10 season and realistically do they stand any chance against the chargers who tore off 9 straight wins before sitting their starters against Washington and still almost won a close 23-20 game with Billy Volek at the helm? Mark Sanchez played phenomenal last week against the Bengals by outplaying the former USC alum he followed at the University by going 12-15 (80% completion percentage) for 182 yards and a touchdown against a stellar Bengals defence. Can San Diego find a way to put Sanchez out of his comfort zone or does Sanchez continue his impressive rookie season? Sanchez better be ready to play and put up impressive numbers because saying San Diego is hot would be an understatement and personally TheCoach thinks they are the most under-rated team in the league because were in Indianapolis and New Orleans’ shadows all season. Can San Diego charge threw the Jets and move on to the AFC Championship vs. the Colts/Ravens winner or does New York have destiny on their side?

New York Jets: The Jets used the exact same game-plan against the Bengals two weeks in a row and it worked to perfection. Now the question arises if it will work against the San Diego Chargers. To start off, Brian Schottenheimer, the offensive coordinator for the Jets has really been consistent all season long (unlike coaches like Todd Haley, Jack Del Rio, Andy Reid etc.) and it has allowed Mark Sanchez to evolve into a quarterback who can win football games. Schottenheimer constantly runs the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene (and did with Washington until he got injured), which makes the defence creep up and creates opportunities for play-action passes, mis-directions and bootleg roll-outs. In fact, two of the Jets touchdown’s against the Bengals came exactly from calls identical to those I just listed. San Diego allowed six consecutive opponents to rush to 100+ yards before they shut it down in week 17 and their back-ups halted Jason Snelling. Five of those six teams averaged over five yards per carry and that is terrible news for the Chargers who are facing the leagues most potent rushing attack. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene should move the chains single handily but if not, they will put Sanchez in third-and-short which will allow Schottenheimer to mix in the type of plays that puts points on the board. Last week everyone doubted that Sanchez could go into Cincinnati as a rookie and excel in the playoffs… well he shut everyone up by completing 80% of his passes. Normally TheCoach would say he is due for a turn-over happy game after last week but he hasn’t turned it over since week 15 and as long as the run-game gets going early and often, Sanchez won’t have to take chances downfield which could result in turnovers.

San Diego: San Diego used to be a team who relied heavily on LaDainian Tomlison and Darren Sproles but neither have them have been able to get things going this season like they have in the past. Due to this, the Chargers have relied heavily on the pass and Philip Rivers has had a fabulous season because of it putting up some of the best numbers in his career. The main target for Rivers is Vincent Jackson, who will be blanket by Darrelle Revis. This season Revis has emerged as the best shut-down corner in football and hasn’t allowed a receiver to have a big game all season, while facing the likes of Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Ocho Cinco (twice), Randy Moss (twice) and Terrell Owens (twice). Don’t go telling me Vincent Jackson is going to have a big day because he won’t. Luckily Rivers will have Gates and Malcom Floyd to go to as well as Sproles out of the backfield… something Carson Palmer didn’t have. There is one thing that could play directly into the Chargers hands and that is Rex Ryan is extremely blitz happy and if he decides to be (and the 2009 regular season taught us anything) Rivers will have a great day. You can’t blitz Rivers and be successful, similar to Manning and Brees.

In summary, it’s known that if a team rest their starters for a game, it generally takes them about a quarter to get back into things. In week 17, the Chargers starters played two drives before sitting the rest of the game before having a BYE last week. Yes, the Chargers are rested, but they may just be rested to much to face a New York Jets squad who is playing with all the confidence in the world. The Chargers are too good of a team (better than the Bengals) to lose but the Jets rallied at the end of the season and have knocked off six of their last seven games with their sole loss coming to the Falcons in the game after Sanchez hurt his knee. Also, I stated in my Ravens-Colts write-up that since 2005, teams who have won on the road in the first round are 7-0 against the spread in the second round and -7.5 points is too many to give against the Jets, who in their ‘playoff itinerary’ have a SuperBowl Parade listed on February 8th. Thats one confident bunch, just hopefully not to confident but TheCoach is confident enough in them as they are 6-3 against the spread on the road this season and 4-2 against the spread as underdogs.

The Coach’s Prediction:
San Diego 24 New York Jets 20