NFL Picks – Divisional Round – Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts [Saturday @ 8:00]

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

LINE: Indianapolis -6.5

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Last week the Ravens came out blazing and went up 24-0 on the Patriots, including an 83 yard rush on the first play of the game from Ray Rice. Can the Ravens run the ball and power through the Colts defence the way they did the Pats or can Indianapolis put a clamp on Ray Rice and force Joe Flacco to throw for more than 4 completions as he did last week. Remember, later in the day Warner threw for 5 touchdowns, when was the last time a QB threw more touchdowns than another threw completions in the playoffs? Never? If the Colts can force Flacco to actually throw the ball, there is no question (in my eyes) who will prevail because Peyton played the best football of his life this season and is in a different league than Flacco. But questions remain if the Colts wil be rusty after sitting starters in the final two weeks? Since 05′ the Colts have rested their starters three times and are not only 0-3 against the spread but also straight up. Keep in mind that was with Tony Dungy coaching, not Jim Caldwell but still the Indianapolis Colts.

Baltimore: If you read TheCoach’s Cardinals-New Orleans write-up, you will see the results of teams who have sat starters when they have clinched a BYE week (3-6 straight up, 1-8 against the spread). Another stat/trend that should influence you for this game is the following; since 05′, seven teams have won a road playoff game in the first round of the playoffs and those teams are 7-0 against the spread in round two. Pretty gat-damn incredible if you ask me. The Ravens are playing smash-mouth football on both offence and defence and it will be tough for the Colts to match the same intensity when the clock starting ticking Saturday Night. Expect it to take a quarter before the Colts get back to 14-0 form. Ray Rice completed busted his nuts all over the Patriots last week and could put up a similar performance against an Indianapolis squad who hasn’t played a serious game in approximately a month.  If Rice can get things going early, he will continue to through-out the game and it will put Joe Flacco in manageable situations. Even if Joey Flac’s (yeah I called him that) doesn’t have the help he did last week, remember back in week 11 he went 23-of-35 for 256 yards and an interception against the Colts in their 17-15 loss. In that game the Ravens D’ held Peyton without a touchdown and if they can do the same on Saturday Night, hopefully for the Ravens sake their offence can cash in a touchdown or two this time (week 11′s meeting consisted of five Baltimore FG’s). With Flacco having one of the best offensive lines in the league with Gaither and Oher protecting him (if you haven’t seen ‘The Blind Side’, the true story based on Oher, see it immediately). Baltimore will need to keep their offence on the field to have their defence fresh for 60 minutes to face Peyton who would see the sidelines for 30+ minutes.

Indianapolis: TheCoach has done his homework folks for you and these stats are alarming if you’re a Colts fan (regardless if Caldwell is now the coach instead of Dungy). In Manning’s career, the Colts have rested him three times for a total of two weeks during the season and in those seasons the Colts have averaged just over 19 points per game. There are six instances where the Colts sat Peyton for just week 17 and the following playoff game they averaged just over 20 points per game. Not only are those very low numbers for Manning’s team but it is also hard to put up 20+ on the Ravens anytime let alone the playoffs when they’re playing so hot. Two pivotal stats that may be proof Peyton and Co. start of a little stale (should also be noted one game they put up 49 points on the Broncos and still only averaged just over 20 points per game). Manning finally got the monkey off his back a few years ago when he took Indianapolis to the SuperBowl and won and the Colts are the team to beat considering they had the best record in the league at 14-2. At the same time, Manning has never performed well in the playoffs as he is 2-8 against the spread excluding games against Jake Plummer, Trent Green and Rex Grossman (three QB’s who fell off the map). Manning is also 1-5 straight up against 3-4 defences while he is 6-3 against the straight up vs. 4-3 defences… and the Ravens have one hell of a 3-4 defence.

In Summary, not only does Peyton struggle in the playoffs against the spread, but the Ravens excel on the road under Jim Harbaugh as they are 12-7 against the spread. Peyton and the Colts with probably take a quarter or so to get back into game-mode if history tells us anything. With that being said, everything I’ve said has leaned towards the Ravens winning Saturday Night and I don’t think they will because Peyton is just to gat-damn good. Give him a series or two (maybe even a Ravens touchdown) and you’ll see Manning fire some boom-boom-pow to get his team back in it.

TheCoach’s Prediction:
Indianapolis 20 Baltimore 17

Also, Be Sure To Check Out:

NFL Picks – NFC Divisional Round – Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

NFL Picks – NFC Divisional Round – Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

NFL Picks – AFC Divisional Round – New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers