NFL Picks – Divisional Round – Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints [Saturday @ 4:30]

Arizona Cardinals (11-6) @ New Orleans Saints (13-3)

LINE: New Orleans -6.5

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Everyone on NFL.com, NBC, CBS, FOX and EPSN is assuming this game will be a shoot-out because of the Saints prolific offence and the fact Arizona put up 51 on Green Bay last week, while allowing the Packers put up 45. Vegas has listed the “total” for this game as 57.5 meaning if the final score is 30-27, it will be still be “under”… insane. Before I go any further, do yourself a favour and bet under. It’s a pretty gat-damn safe bet. The question going into this game won’t be if Arizona will be able to put up points on the Saints D’, it’s if the Saints come out with any fire-power after looking horrendous the final three games of the season. Should New Orleans have played their starters in week 17 to avoid what could be considered the biggest let-down in franchise history? TheCoach says you damn right they should have but maybe the Saints put on cruise-control after they were 11-0 with their closest division rival at 6-5. Hmm, the biggest question is… who shows up Sunday for New Orleans? The Super-Saints that started the season off putting up 40+ on everyone they played, or the team who struggled to beat the 3-13 Buccaneers (with their starters) in the closing weeks of the season.

Arizona: Wow, last week Kurt Warner established his spot in Canton’s Football Hall-Of-Fame. Dude goes 29-of-33; for 379 yards. That’s only 4 incompletions to go with his 5 touchdowns. That is unheard of!!! TheCoach can’t remember the last time a quarterback had more touchdown’s than incompletions and he did it against the Packers 3-4 defence… very impressive in anyone eyes. To stop Warner, the Saints will have to put forth the same game-plan on defence that Arizona will and that’s getting consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback without blitzing. Kurt Warner tore apart the Packers without Anquan Boldin and whether Boldin returns shouldn’t make any difference as the Cardinals have way to many weapons on offence for the Saints to contain for 60 minutes. TheCoach expects Warner to have another great day, mainly due to the fact that his running back Chris Wells, along with fellow back Tim Hightower should constantly put Warner is manageable third-downs. New Orleans run-defence started off the season strong and it was a huge reason why the Saints were blowing out opponents but in the final 10 weeks of the season, New Orleans has allowed everyone team they’ve played to rush for 115+ yards. If the Saints allow Wells and Hightower to bust nuts all day, Warner will obliterate the secondary. As I said the key to this game will be getting pressure on Warner and the fact New Orleans lost defensive end Charles Grant is devastating because Will Smith is now the only player with more than 5 sacks in the regular season.

New Orleans: It is now becoming public that Drew Brees wanted to sit out week 17 because he wanted to keep his completion percentage record for a single season intact. TheCoach would understand if football were an individual sport but it is played by a TEAM and what Brees did in my eyes is appalling. Putting that aside, I said before week 17 started that if New Orleans doesn’t play out the season they are shooting themselves in the foot. They haven’t played a solid football game since the Monday night battle against New England Nov. 30th which turned out to be no battle what-so-ever. If the Saints can play like they did back when they were beating teams 45-10 and 42-7 , this game will be a shoot-out because Brees has just as many weapons as Warner. The problem is Brees and his receivers haven’t looked on the same page in almost two months and the Saints haven’t won a game in the past month. Their playoff BYE might be their biggest downfall of the season (see below), that most people (including myself) thought they could have a 16-0 campaign. The Cardinals defence is hot and cold, they sacked Aaron Rodgers five times on Sunday and put up 43 sacks on the season but also allowed Green Bay to put up 45 points. Thomas, Bush and Bell are going to need to do everything they can on Saturday afternoon to put Brees in situations that allow him to move the sticks. TheCoach would love to say this game will be a repeat of last week and the Saints will put up 40+ but I ddon’t trust the way the Saints finished off the season.

The spread (subject to change through-out the week) came out New Orleans -7.0 and call me crazy but the way Arizona played last week, they should not be full touchdown underdogs. I don’t care who they are playing and last years SuperBowl is a prime example. TheCoach has never been a fan of teams resting their starters in the finals weeks of the season when they’ve clinched the playoffs. After all look how it’s turned out for squads who have since 2005;

2008: Titans* – Loss SU (straight up), Loss ATS (against the spread)
2008: Colts – Loss SU, Loss ATS
2007: Colts* – Loss SU, Loss ATS
2007: Jaguars – Win SU, Loss ATS
2007: Steelers – Loss SU, Win ATS
2007: Buccaneers – Loss SU, Loss ATS
2006: Eagles – Win SU, Loss ATS
2006: Saints* – Win SU, Loss ATS
2005: Colts* – Loss SU, Loss ATS

3-6 straight up; 1-8 against the spread

Kurt Warner is too old and mature of a quarterback to be phased by the New Orleans crowd in the Superdome on Saturday and considering the Cardinals are 6-1 against the spread this season as underdogs, how can you not take these seven points and run to the bank. Tough to say who wins this game, the Saints really need to after starting 13-0 but seven points is a lot considering playoff teams coming off BYE’s are 1-8 against the spread since 05′ in the divisional round of the playoffs. I won’t guarantee the upset straight up but the Cardinals should absolutely cover against Saints team that has recently looked questionable at best.

TheCoach’s Prediction: Arizona 27 New Orleans 23

Also, Be Sure To Check Out:

NFL Picks – AFC Divisional Round – Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

NFL Picks – NFC Divisional Round – Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

NFL Picks – AFC Divisional Round – New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers