NFL PICKS – AFC Wildcard – New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals [Saturday @ 4:30]

TheCoach | Jan 06, 2010 | Comments 0

New York Jets (9-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

LINE: Cincinnati -2.5

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Last Sunday, in the final game of the regular season the Jets dismantled the Bengals with their ground attack. I can’t believe how horrible Cincinnati played, as they didn’t show up what so ever. TheCoach figured with windy conditions, both teams would run the ball constantly… and they pretty much did, unfortunately the Bengals back-ups couldn’t stop Thomas Jones, Brad Smith and Shonn Green, who put up 257 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. All they needed to do was stack the box, yet they still couldn’t stop them (they’re back-ups for a reason). The Bengals simply gave up, and the Jets took full advantage. I knew the Jets would win because they had to win to make the playoffs where as the Bengals were already in, and why beat out the Jets and face a dynamic offence in the Houston Texans when you could let the Jets expose their entire playbook in a much win, and have the ability to dominate a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez.

New York: The Jets couldn’t beat the Bengals secondary threw the air with back-ups in, so why would they change their game plan? If you can knock off 257 yards in a game, you aren’t going to change thed way you play (and it’s the way the Jets have played all year). The problem with this is the Bengals didn’t play hard last week because they were more content facing the Jets in the first round, than facing the Texans. That isn’t the main reason though because even with a team focused playing starters, a great running game can put up good numbers. The main reason the Jets were able to run all over Cincinnati was because Domata Peko and Robert Geathers (two d-linemen who specialize against the run) were both sitting the game out. Peko has been out since early Dec. and is expected to make his return and Geathers will be suit up which will put a clamp on any type of run game up the middle. With Peko and Geathers in the line-up, the Bengals havn’t allowed a big game on the ground at any point this season. With the Jets not being able to run wild like they did last week, Mark Sanchez will be forced to moved the chains single handily. Cincinnati doesn’t have a Darrelle Revis on their team but they do have an excellent shut-down secondary that week-in-week-out plays consistent football and TheCoach doesn’t trust Sanchez on the road in his first ever playoff game, especially in such a hostile environment like Cincy. Other than 2006, when the Bengals hosted the Steelers and lost, Cincinnati hasn’t had a home-playoff game, actually, they havn’t HAD a playoff game since the 1990-91′ season. The stadium will be NUTS and Sanchez is 46-of-91 for 552 yards, 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 4 road games against Indy (only played starters for half of game), New England, Miami and New Orleans… teams of similar calibre as the Bengals.

Cincinnati: If you didn’t watch the week 17 match-up and know nothing about football, you’d think the Jets will kill this week. If you watched week 17, and know football… you know what will happen. Carson Palmer went 1-of-11 for 0 yards and an interception before getting the yank on Sunday. With Palmer in, and after he left, the Bengals only put up 72 total yards and five first downs. There are a ton of things that accounted for this; 1) The Bengals didn’t play hard, 2) Cincy didn’t want to show their cards to a team they play the next week in the playoffs 3) OchoCinco hurt his knee in pre-game warms up and couldn’t perform but he is expected to play this week. 4) Cedric Benson didn’t play 5) Carson Palmer barely played. With all that being said, Revis will still blanket the semi-hurt OchoCinco but the return of Benson will do wonders for the Bengals offence as he will put his team in constant 3rd-down attempts that are manageable. Benson has ripped off 4.0+ yards per carry in 6 of his last 7 games and even though the Jets have a great defence, when the Bengals want to run the ball, they do (they put up 288 yards against the Ravens top ranked run defence in the two games this year).

In summary, if it weren’t for the 37-0 blow-out last week, this line would be closer to -5.5 for the Bengals but people are giving the Jets way to much credit for a win that meant nothing to Cincinnati. New York was in a must win and threw everything they had at the Bengals exposing themselves by giving Marvin Lewis and his coaching staff hours of great game film to dissect. As for the Jets coaching staff… when was the last time they faced the Bengals? Not this year.

TheCoachs Pick:
Cincinnati 23 New York Jets 13