NFL Picks – AFC Conference Championship – New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts [Sunday @ 3:00]

TheCoach | Jan 20, 2010 | Comments 1

New York Jets (11-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (15-2)

Line: Indianapolis -7.5

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Unlike years past, Peyton and the Colts didn’t start slow coming out of their BYE week and forced the Ravens to abandon their running game earlier than they would have liked too. Now, the questions becomes if Peyton can repeat his performance from last week and force the Jets, who have the #1 pass defence and #1 run offence, to stop him early with their D’ and keep the ability to run the ball. The Jets defence must contain Peyton because if the Jets are forced to air it out offensively, they rank 31st with 148.8 passing yards per game. Peyton went 30-of-44 for 2 touchdowns and a interceptions last week, while Sanchez numbers looked more Sanchez-like last week as he went 12-of-23 for 100 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception after going 12-of-15 for 182 yards against Cincinnati. The Jets won again by running the ball and playing smash-mouth defence and won mostly in-spite of Sanchez, not because of him. The Jets will need to keep playing the same type of football and put the clamps on Manning if they want any chance on Sunday.

New York Jets: Even though the Colts shut down the running game of Baltimore’s Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, don’t think that Indianapolis will have the same success against the number one ground attack in the league. Baltimore’s Ray Rice who gets the majority of the load, is a big bruising tail-back who will run you over before he will run around you. The New York Jets back are a totally different style and have the best run-game because of their elusiveness and speed. In Week 16 (yeah, I know the Colts rested), the Jets ran wild for 200 yards on 39 carries and you could say it was all because the back-ups… but didn’t everyone think that for Cincinnati’s game? Look what happened. The Ravens last week did not put together the type of game-plan in which Brian Schottenheimer will bring forward for the Jets and trust me, it is no surprise Rex Ryan is doing so well. He is a smart man surrounded by a smart coaching-staff. Expect the Jets to be run-happy once again but TheCoach thinks they will mix it up through-out the game (much like last week), with bootlegs, play-action passes and misdirections. The Jets on the road this year are 7-3 against the spread and 5-3 against the spread as underdogs.

Indianapolis: Peyton Manning played good last week, but this week he is going to have to play great! His offence has the worst running game in the league (ranked 32nd), and the Colts are facing the best

Peyton is serious about going to his second SuperBowl

pass-defence and if Peyton can’t do it all himself (the guy has done it his whole career), the Jets will be able to upset the Colts. Indianapolis needs to jump out to an early 10 or 14 point lead in order to make the Jets abandon their running game and put the game in Mark Sanchez’s hands. That’s how the Colts blow out the Jets. There is no way Sanchez can keep up with Manning’s prolific offence but if the Jets can keep Peyton off the field early, and run the ball and put up some points themselves… this will turn out to be another great game as the Jets are the Cinderella of the NFL right now. I expect Revis will blanket Reggie Wayne but it won’t matter because when Peyton wants to score, Peyton scores, and will find Garcon or Clark and utilize them all day reminding everyone of why Manning is the best quarterback in the league. No other quarterback has been able to get past what Revis and the Jets do and havn’t had a great game in the process. Before Peyton exited in week 16, he was 14-of-21 for 192 yards, practically on pace for 400 yards and 30 completions… the Colts were up 15-10 and rarely when Manning has a lead does he lose.

In summary, I think the Colts love the fact they get to play the Jets because historically the Chargers have matched up against the Colts very well and have had their number. With that being said, the Colts aren’t fools and know the skill and confidence that New York is currently playing with and will not take them lightly. Last week, the line climbed in the Jets-Chargers game. It started at -6.5 Chargers and was up to -7.5 by the weekend. If you want to bet the Colts, bet them early because TheCoach expects the line to climb come Saturday. With that being said, I still wouldn’t lay a touchdown+ against the Jets.. when a team is hot, you ride them as underdogs but no way am I betting straight-up against Manning.

TheCoach’s Predictions:
Indianapolis 23 Jets 20

COLTS OFFENCE:

Points Per Game – 26.0 (7th)
Yards Per Game – 363.1 (9th)
Pass Yards Per Game – 282.2 (2nd)
Rush Yards Per Game – 80.9 (32nd)

COLTS DEFENCE:

Points Per Game – 19.2 (8th)
Yards Per Game – 339.2 (18th)
Pass Yards Per Game – 212.7 (14th)
Rush Yards Per Game – 126.5 (24th)
Fumbles Forced/Recovered – 14/9 (18th/25th)
Interceptions – 16 (15th)
Sacks – 34 (16th)

JETS OFFENCE:

Points Per Game – 21.8 (17th)
Yards Per Game – 321.0 (20th)
Pass Yards Per Game – 148.8 (31st)
Rush Yards Per Game – 172.2 (1st)

JETS DEFENCE:

Points Per Game – 14.8 (1st)
Yards Per Game – 252.3 (1st)
Pass Yards Per Game – 153.7 (1st)
Rush Yards Per Game – 98.6 (8th)
Fumbles Forced/Recovered – 15/14 (13th/4th)
Interceptions – 17 (13th)
Sacks - 32 (18th)